July Best Month for Flagler County Home Sales in 9 Years

The total value of single-family Flagler MLS home sales exceeded $50M, the highest level since June 2006 and 502% above the January 2009 low.

PALM COAST, FL – August 18, 2015 – The total value of single-family Flagler MLS home sales in July exceeded $50M, the highest level since June 2006 and 502% above the January 2008 low. Still, the July total remains 41% below the June 2005 peak. How so?

It has been said, “Numbers lie and liars figure.” Assuming the numbers are true, how do I paint such a dramatic picture? Up 502% from the low yet 41% below the peak??

The single most important statistic to the average homeowner is the value of their home. They want to know if home prices are rising or falling. How fast? And by how much? That is why we tend to measure the health of the housing market by tracking selling prices. But that’s not the only way to look at the market.

For instance, we don’t read about the average price or the median price of a new car. Instead, the car market is typically measured in the number of cars sold while individual auto manufacturers are measured in gross sales (and profits).

Real estate agents and brokers are compensated through commissions. Their income is directly related to total sales; a combination of price and the number of homes sold. In their case, the gross sales numbers mentioned above truly represent the fluctuations they have experienced through both the rising and falling market. Real estate practitioners’ incomes fluctuate more wildly than do home prices.

The total sales value of SFR (single-family residential) Flagler County homes dropped a whopping 88.3% in only two and one half years. That’s true, but the high was in June 2005 and the low was in January 2008. Not a valid comparison. January is typically the slowest month for home sale closings in our market. June is typically among the best months.

In 12 of the most recent 13 years, more home sales have closed in June than in January, averaging 59.7% more. So agents and brokers expect a seasonal swing in monthly sales volume. Still, comparing January and July sales statistics without noting the seasonality is misleading.

On an annual revenue basis, local realtors had their best year in 2005 when SFR sales totaled $792.7M. Their worst year was 2010, when SFR sales totaled $235.1M, a 70.3% drop. Still big, but not as bad as the true but misleading 88.3% above. (Of course, by 2010, there were fewer agents and brokers to share the commission pie.)

By comparison, total SFR sales revenue over the past 12 months was $482.7M. Total sales have exceeded $500M in only on year (2005), so the past 12 month period is on a par with 2004 and 2006